Gold and Silver Volatility: Is the Bull Run Still Intact (2026) ?

What Just Happened in Precious Metals

• After a sharp rally, gold and silver saw a strong pullback on Thursday

• Silver corrected over 15 percent during the session, while gold fell more than 3 percent

• On MCX, silver dropped nearly 9 percent to an intraday low of ₹2,44,654 per kg

• Gold slipped around 3 percent to ₹1,48,455 per 10 grams

• The fall followed a short lived recovery after an earlier sharp correction

What Triggered the Selloff

• Rebound in the US dollar reduced the appeal of non yield bearing assets

• Profit booking after an excessive rally in a short period

• Additional margins imposed by MCX from February 5, 2026

-  4.5 percent extra margin on silver futures
-  1 percent extra margin on gold futures

• Market reaction to US President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair

• Reports of potential US Iran talks in Oman weakened short term safe haven demand

Silver ETFs Reflect Elevated Volatility

• Silver ETFs saw heavy selling pressure during the session

• Axis Silver ETF fell nearly 21 percent intraday to ₹216.86 from ₹275

• Other major silver ETFs including HDFC, ICICI Prudential, SBI, Kotak and Edelweiss declined between 12 percent and 17 percent

• The sharp ETF correction reflected leveraged positioning and margin driven unwinding

Is the Bull Trend Still Intact

• According to Deutsche Bank strategists, the selloff was driven by short term catalysts rather than a structural shift

• Elevated speculative activity alone does not explain the scale of the recent correction

• Investor intent across central banks, institutions and individual investors remains broadly unchanged

Long Term Fundamentals Continue to Support Gold

• Central banks, including the Reserve Bank of India, have steadily increased gold purchases in recent years

• Geopolitical uncertainty and currency diversification are driving reserve accumulation

• De-dollarization trends continue to strengthen gold’s strategic relevance

• India currently holds the world’s seventh largest gold reserves

Market Outlook for Investors

• Nuvama Professional Clients Group expects

• Gold to test ₹1.75 lakh per 10 grams in the near term

• Silver to approach ₹3.3 lakh per kg

• Between January 28 and February 2, spot silver and gold corrected 32 percent and 13 percent respectively

• A short recovery of 11 percent in silver and 6.5 percent in gold proved unsustainable

Pivot Money Insight

• Recent volatility reflects positioning and liquidity adjustments, not a breakdown in fundamentals

• Precious metals remain relevant as long term portfolio hedges against currency risk and geopolitical stress

• Investors should focus on allocation discipline rather than short term price swings

• Periodic corrections are healthy in extended bull markets and often create better entry points

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