Goldman Sachs Bets on India: 7% Growth Forecast for 2026

India’s economic trajectory, is entering a new phase and for Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) with capital allocated to Indian markets, this shift deserves close attention. 

Goldman Sachs has recently revised its outlook on India, factoring in evolving global trade dynamics, domestic consumption resilience, and broader macroeconomic trends.

A Stronger Growth Outlook

Goldman Sachs now expects India to grow at 6.9% in 2026, helped by lower US tariffs on Indian exports.

Why does that matter to you?

Because growth like this isn’t theoretical. It flows into:

• Stronger corporate earnings

• More predictable business expansion

• Better long-term equity performance

When Indian exporters face lower tariffs, they become more competitive globally. That translates into healthier balance sheets and over time, healthier portfolios for investors like you.

This is the kind of development that supports staying invested, not jumping in and out of markets.

Trade Deal with the United States Matters

The expected current account deficit has been revised down to 0.8% of GDP.

Think of this as India needing less external support to fund its growth.

Countries with smaller deficits are generally:

• More resilient during global volatility

• Less exposed to sudden capital outflows

• Better placed to maintain currency stability

For NRIs, this reduces one of the classic risks of emerging market investing macro imbalance.

In simple terms: India’s growth is becoming more self-sustaining.

What About the Rupee?

The rupee has actually performed well recently, but Goldman Sachs doesn’t expect sharp appreciation from here.

Many NRI investors unconsciously hope for currency gains to boost returns. But the RBI tends to manage the rupee carefully, accumulating reserves and avoiding sharp moves.

So the real driver of your returns will likely be:

India’s growth → company earnings → asset performance → not currency swings.

Interest Rates Are Likely Done Falling

The expectation is that RBI will hold rates steady at 5.25% through 2026.
This tells us the economy no longer needs emergency support. It’s moving into a more normal phase.

For investors, that means:

• Don’t expect bond markets to deliver returns from falling rates.

• Fixed income should play a stabilising role, not a return-chasing one.

The Trade Deal Is Less About Tariffs - And More About Confidence

The reduction in US tariffs on Indian exports (from 25% to 18%) sends a broader signal: Global trade alignment with India is improving.

What This Means for Your Portfolio:

1. Move From Tactical Investing to Structural Allocation

India should no longer sit in the “opportunistic” bucket.

Treat India as:

• A core growth allocation

• With a 3–7 year horizon

2. Overcommitting After Headlines

Sharp inflows after bullish news often create:

• Poor entry pricing

• Mid/small-cap concentration risk

3. Manage Currency - Don’t Ignore It

Improving CAD and trade balance may stabilise INR, but currency cycles never disappear.

• Align remittance timing with investment horizon

• Avoid frequent conversions that erode returns

How Pivot Money Can Help

• Build balanced India + global portfolios aligned with your financial goals.

• Optimize cross-border tax planning and currency exposure.

• Translate market news into clear, practical investment decisions, so you act with confidence, not guesswork.